Winter is coming!
In Inventory Planner, you can use 3 methods to forecast sales for the holiday season
- Manual forecast increase. If you can estimate overall growth of sales for November and December, it is possible to use the default forecasting method based on recent trends and increase the sales projections by a percentage with forecasting rules. To apply a forecasting rule, select products in the Replenishment report and click Bulk Actions > Set Forecast Percentage Adjustment.
- Top-down forecasting. When you have enough sales data in categories (more than 12 months), the top-down forecasting can automatically account for spikes in sales. This method uses sales projections for categories and narrows them down to products based on the product contribution into the category. It also works for products without long sales history and follows the category pattern. To enable top-down forecasting, go to Account > Settings > Forecasting and select Top-Down Seasonal as your forecasting method.
Seasonal forecasting. When most of your products have more than 12 months sales history, you can use seasonal forecasting methods to estimate the spike. This forecast method refers to the same months in prior years as the sales reference period. This is beneficial for holiday and seasonally driven items with 12+ months of history. Sales Velocity is not a consideration in this case. Trend is applied by evaluating sales over the last 12 months vs. the prior 12 months.For example, sales from January 2018 and January 2019 impact the forecasted needs for January 2020. If today is December 31, 2019 - the trend will be based on sales between January - December 2019 vs. January - December 2018.
To enable seasonal forecasting, select products in the Replenishment report and click Bulk Actions > Set Forecast Settings and select Seasonal as your forecast method.