Winter is coming!
In Inventory Planner, you can use 3 methods to forecast sales for the holiday season
- Manual forecast increase. If you can estimate overall growth of sales for November and December, it is possible to use the default forecasting method based on recent trends and increase the sales projections by a percentage with forecasting rules. To apply a forecasting rule, select products in the Replenishment report and click Bulk Actions > Increase Forecast by a Percentage. In order not to account for the growth twice, the seasonality setting for the products should be disabled. To do it, select products in the Replenishment report and click Bulk Actions > Disable seasonality.
- Top-down forecasting. When you have enough sales data in categories (more than 12 months), the top-down forecasting can automatically account for spikes in sales. This method uses sales projections for categories and narrows them down to products based on the product contribution into the category. It also works for products without long sales history and follows the category pattern. To enable top-down forecasting, go to Account > Settings > Forecasting and enable Use top-down forecasting setting.
Seasonal forecasting. When most of your products have more than 12 months sales history, you can use the seasonality to estimate the spike. Given a seasonal product, the forecasting algorithm puts more weight on sales 12 months ago and therefore accounts for the increase in sales (if any) of each particular product. To enable seasonal forecasting, select products in the Replenishment report and click Bulk Actions > Enable seasonality.