Sales forecast is one of core features of Inventory Planner and is used as input for replenishment suggestions. The default forecasting method in Inventory Planner is based on historical sales for each product. We use the sales velocity that excludes periods of time when product was out of stock and also analyze recents sales trends.

Seasonality

If a product is marked as seasonal, the forecast will give more weight to sales 12 month ago instead of latest trends. This is a good way to account for holiday spikes
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You can enable this for all products in Account > Settings or for selected products using Bulk Actions > Set Seasonality.

Stockout history

Inventory Planner automatically collects when a product is out of stock starting from the moment you connect your store to Inventory Planner. This data helps to estimate the demand correctly. For example, if you sell on average ten units of product A per month and the product is out of stock half a month the real demand for it is 20 units. Without taking stockouts into account, the forecasted demand could be too low.

By default, your account is set to take into account stockouts. If your store allows overselling (continuing to sell an item even when it is out of stock), then you should change this setting to disregard out-of-stock information. You can change this for all products in Account > Settings > Forecast.  

If you would like to change this setting for only a set of products (not your entire account), use Bulk Actions > "Don't adjust forecast using stockouts". 

This setting can also be changed via variant details > Edit Forecast. 

You can manually edit days out-of-stock for previous months in variant details > Edit Forecast > Past Sales.

Top-down forecasting

Top-down forecasting should be used for seasonal products that don't have 12 months of sales history. When it is enabled, we compute sales forecast for product category and break it down into products, taking into account each product contribution into the category.

You can enable top-down forecasting in Settings.


Note: If you need to make additional changes to your forecast, read our article about the
Edit Forecast functionality.

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