Skip to main content

Details page: Forecast tab

S
Written by Sara Jaffer
Updated this week

The Forecast tab demonstrates how the forecast has been calculated and how it’s adjusted using your previous sales history, as well as allowing you to make edits to the forecast itself.

Note: To edit the forecast settings for this specific variant, open the Catalog & orders modal by clicking the info icon, or go to Catalog > Forecast settings.

The information on the Forecast tab will differ depending on:

  • The selected forecast method

  • The “Use stockouts history” setting

  • Whether the warehouse is combined, with “Combined forecast” enabled

The Forecast tab is present for both individual items and aggregated views, but aggregated views omit some sections.

Forecast overview

The Forecast overview section displays the most important information about your forecast, giving you a quick look at what’s happening with your variant. It does not appear for aggregated views.

In this section, you’ll see callout boxes displaying the seasonal increase and trend (if applicable) and a label indicating whether the sales are increasing or decreasing, or whether there are no sales for the variant at all. The data is based on the last 30 days (which is compared to the previous 30 days to calculate if sales are increasing or decreasing).

The data is presented in boxes containing the following metrics, depending on the forecast method:

Metric

Forecast method(s)

Description

Sales velocity

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

The sales velocity per month and per day.

If the “Use stockouts history” setting is enabled, the adjusted sales velocity per month or per day (which takes stockouts into account).

30-days sales velocity

All

The sales velocity for the last 30 days. If “Use stockouts history” setting is enabled, this uses the last 30 days with stock.
Past sales overrides do not apply to this metric

Trend detection

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Seasonal

Recent sales and trends: The number of months a trend has been detected for, with the units per day and per month.

Seasonal: The YoY% growth detected (units per month), and the actual value.

Seasonal increase

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

The November and December seasonal increase % for the next calendar year.

By default, the seasonal increase is based on variant sales, but if it’s using warehouse sales, you’ll see “Based on warehouse sales” displayed.

If no seasonal increase is detected, you’ll see “--” instead.

Sales chart

The sales chart displays your historic sales data and projected sales forecast in the form of a graph. You’ll see sales data going back a year, and a forecast for the year ahead.

On the top left-hand side of the chart, the variant’s created at, first sold at and last sold at dates are displayed.

If viewing the forecast for a combined warehouse, you can check the “Show breakdown by warehouse“ box to see how the sales are split across all warehouses being combined.

Source data

The Source data section displays the data your forecast is based on. It only appears for individual variants.

In this section, you’ll see a table displaying:

Row

Forecast method(s)

Description

Sales period for forecast

All methods.

  • Recent sales and trends: The selected date range, with the actual dates in brackets

  • Last sales: The number of days, with the actual dates in brackets

  • Seasonal: The last 2 years

The date range selected for the forecast.

Inventory Planner checks over this range, but the actual days included in the forecast may be lower depending on your configuration.

Factors which may affect the actual days included are:

  • Stockouts

  • Excluded sales dates

  • If the start date for the item falls within the period

  • If “Combine stock/sales history” is enabled

Stockouts

All, if applicable.

Number of stockouts during the sales period for forecast.

This field is only included if “Use stockouts history” is enabled for this variant.

Sales for forecast

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

The number of sales in the forecast period, less the sales on excluded days, dependent on configuration.

Excluded days include:

  • Stockout days, if “Use stockouts history” is enabled

  • Manually specified excluded sales days

  • Days ignored from the start

The number of excluded sales is noted in brackets.

Days for forecast

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

The number of days in the forecast period, less the excluded days, dependent on configuration.

Excluded days include:

  • Stockout days, if “Use stockouts history” is enabled

  • Manually specified excluded sales days

  • Days ignored from the start

The number of excluded days is noted in brackets.

Sales velocity

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

The sales per day.

Calculated as the sales for forecast divided by the days for forecast.

Also displayed as sales per month.

Method

The Method section displays a summary of the key forecast settings for this variant. It does not appear for aggregated views.

You will see labels indicating:

Label type

Possible values

Forecast method

  • Seasonal forecast

  • Recent sales and trends

  • Last sales

If the variant does not have enough sales history to calculate a forecast, a “Short sales history” label will appear regardless of the set forecast method. By default, a minimum of 30 days' history is required, but you can contact Inventory Planner Support to change that number. Learn more about the short sales history configuration here.

Stockouts history configuration

  • Use stockouts history

  • Ignore stockouts history

Depends on whether the “Use stockouts history” setting is enabled for this variant.

Trend

For Seasonal forecasts:

  • x% YoY limit

where “x” is the percentage limit set in the configuration.

For Recent sales and trends:

  • x months trend

where “x” is the number of months of trend detection set in the configuration.

Combine warehouse setting configuration

If the warehouse is a combined warehouse and “Combine forecast” is enabled:

  • Combine enabled warehouse

Forecast methodology used

This label summarizes the methodology used to calculate the forecast, based on the other settings.

  • Uses combined warehouse forecasts
    If the warehouse is a combined warehouse and “Combine forecast” is enabled. Overrides other methodologies.
    Note that if a combined warehouse forecast is used, the metrics displayed are for information and may not be reflective of the forecast.

  • Uses sales to date
    If forecast method is “Short sales history”.

  • Uses sales velocity
    If forecast method is “Last sales”, or if forecast method is “Recent sales and trends” and no trend is detected.

  • Uses 30d sales velocity + trend units
    If forecast method is “Recent sales and trends” and a trend is detected.

  • Uses month in previous year + YoY%
    If forecast method is “Seasonal forecast” and there’s more than 12 months of sales history.
    This label indicates Inventory Planner is using the same month in the previous year, +/- YoY% growth (up to the configured limit).

  • Uses category’s month in previous year + YoY%
    If forecast method is “Seasonal forecast” and there’s less than 12 months of sales history.
    This label indicates Inventory Planner is using the same month in the previous year, +/- YoY% growth (up to the configured limit). Note that the data is sourced from the variant’s category based on the variant’s sales contribution to the category for the past 3 months.

Forecast and history

The Forecast and history section displays the forecast produced by Inventory Planner, any adjustments to the forecast, and the key data you need to understand it.

It’s comprised of two tables:

  • “Forecast”

  • “Sales and stock history”

Above the tables, you’ll see buttons and toggles allowing you to take actions that affect the data.

The actions you can take are:

Button

Action

Revenue/units toggle

Switches the forecast values between revenue (including currency symbols) and units.

Clear % adjustment

Clears the percentage adjustment field in the Forecast table.

Clear all forecast overrides

Clears all overrides to the forecast.

Clear all sales history overrides

Clears all overrides to the sales and stock history.

Export

Choose whether to export the forecast or sales history.

Import

Provides a shortcut to the import pages for:

  • Combine sales/stock

  • Forecast override

  • Sales orders

  • Stockouts

  • Wholesale orders

Forecast table

The forecast displays the forecast for the next 18 months, including the current month. It displays the calculated forecast, then takes any adjustments into account, before displaying a final forecast.

The table contains the following rows:

Row

Description

Base forecast

The forecast calculated by Inventory Planner for the month. It is not editable.

Forecast override

An editable field where you can enter your own figure for the month’s forecast.

If your own figure is entered, the % adjustment and Total forecast fields for the month use that instead of the base forecast.

% adjustment

An editable field where you can enter a positive or negative percentage adjustment to be added to or removed from the base forecast (or forecast override, if applicable).

Seasonal increases are automatically filled into this field, though you can override them.

Wholesale forecast

Displays any forecasted wholesale orders for the month. It’s not editable.

Total forecast

Displays the total forecast. The calculation is:

Total forecast = Wholesale forecast + ([Forecast override OR Base forecast] * % adjustment)

This field is non-editable. Changes can be made by updating the forecast override or the % adjustment.

Daily sales velocity

The average number of sales per day, used in Replenishment. This figure is derived from the forecast and can be used to compare performance month-to-month.

This figure is always displayed in units. The calculation is:

Daily sales velocity = Total forecast / Days in the month

Note that for the current month, the total days in the month is used in the calculation.

Sales and stock history table

The Sales and stock history table displays the last 12 months of sales information, so you can easily compare your past performance to the forecast or sense-check your forecast. It includes the current month.

The table contains the following columns:

Row

Description

Past sales

The past sales or revenue for the variant.

This field can be edited if using the “Recent sales and trends” or “Seasonal forecast” methods, and only when viewing the tab in terms of units.

Excluded sales

Displays any sales which have been excluded from the sales history when calculating the forecast. It’s not editable.

If there are excluded sales in a month, you’ll see the number of total excluded sales and an information icon. Click the information icon to view more details about the excluded sales.

Adjusted past sales

This field can be used to exclude specific one-off events (such as promos and discounts) for specific variants.

This field can be edited if using the “Recent sales and trends” or “Seasonal forecast” methods.

Past stockouts

Displays the stockouts for the month.

This field can be edited if using the “Recent sales and trends” or “Seasonal forecast” methods.

However, note that these past stockouts are on the month level, so metrics based on them may be less accurate. For more accurate metrics, import stockouts for specific days instead. Learn more about importing stockout history here.

Daily sales velocity (past)

The sales velocity for that month, calculated as:

Daily sales velocity (past) = [Past sales OR Adjusted past sales] / (Days in month – [Stockouts, if “Use stockouts history” is enabled])

MoM % change

The percentage change in the daily sales velocity compared to the previous month, calculated as:

MoM % change = (Current month’s “Daily sales velocity (past)” – previous month’s “Daily sales velocity (past)”) / Previous month’s “Daily sales velocity (past)”
Did this answer your question?